Home » , , » Asia Pacific Equity Strategy - Net foreign selling in Emerging Asia ex-China rises to US$28 bn over last five months

Asia Pacific Equity Strategy - Net foreign selling in Emerging Asia ex-China rises to US$28 bn over last five months

Shared By Stock Fanatic on Saturday, July 14, 2018 | 14.7.18

US$28.4 bn of net foreign selling over the past five months. With net foreign selling in Emerging Asia ex-China accelerating over the past three trading days to US$3 bn, Figure 1 highlights cumulative net foreign selling of US$28.4 bn over the past five months. While Taiwan (US$9.1 bn) and Korea (US$5.3 bn) have accounted for half the net foreign selling, Figure 1 also highlights that no market has been spared. Net foreign selling over the past five months was US$5 bn in Thailand, US$3.3 bn in Indonesia, US$2.6 bn in India, US$1.9 bn in Malaysia and US$1.2 bn in the Philippines. Read More

Fifth episode of foreign investor capitulation. We define foreign investor capitulation as foreigners becoming net sellers on a rolling 12- months basis. Figure 2 highlights net foreign selling of 0.4% of market cap in Emerging Asia ex-China ex-Malaysia. The other four episodes were in 2003 (SARs), 2008 (GFC), 2011 (European Financial crisis) and 2015/ 2016 (Yuan devaluation). While an escalation of the trade war could lead to deterioration in fundamentals, Figure 4 highlights a small 0.2% upgrade to 2018E consensus EPS for the region. This upgrade comes after two consecutive months of downgrades.

Even Southbound is associated with net selling. While YTD Southbound is still associated with net foreign buying of US$12.5 bn, Southbound has been associated with net selling of US$2.7 bn over the past three months.

Source : Credit Suisse Asia Pacific Equity Research
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Posted on Saturday, July 14, 2018 | 14.7.18
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