The rebound on the Australian ASX200 (ASX200) may still have a tad more upside to go before the larger downtrend resumes in our opinion.
Our LT view has been bearish on the ASX200 SET (see 18th September, 10 th August and 24th July issues) and our last ST call came up a tad short.
We were expecting a thrust from the triangle towards the 4,680-4,850 levels but the thrust only reached a low of 4,918 before the ‘expected’ big rebound took place.
This current rebound has completed the first and second part, which is denoted as an A and B. The rebound is likely to continue on for the near term for at least a move above 5,385.
There is a cluster of Fibonacci targets surrounding the 5,445-5,452, which could act as a possible stopping area for the final wave-C of this rebound that began from the 4,918 low.
Note that, the 4,918 low is a very important level on the daily and weekly chart. A break below the said support level would likely open the door for the bears to take prices towards 4,632 and eventually 3,765-3,985 next.
Critical resistance is still the 2015 high of 5,985-5,996. Higher in the short term but we are bearish on the longer term. (Read Report)
Source : CIMB Research