Singapore 3Q 2015 GDP - Better than estimated…


■ 3Q 2015 real GDP growth of +1.9% both YoY and QoQ SAAR was stronger than the advance estimates of +1.4% YoY and +0.1% QoQ SAAR (2Q 2015: +2.0% YoY; +2.6% QoQ SAAR).

■ Expansions in services and domestic demand offset the continued declines in manufacturing and net exports amid easing construction sector.

■ 2015 YTD growth was +2.2%. We expect full-year growth of +2.0% in both 2015 and 2016.

Real GDP growth was +1.9% YoY and +1.9% QoQ SAAR in 3Q 2015, better than the advanced estimate of +1.4% YoY and +0.1% QoQ SAAR (2Q 2015: +2.0% YoY; -2.6% QoQ SAAR). For the first three quarters of 2015, the economy grew +2.2% YoY (JanSep 2014: +3.2% YoY), driven by the services sector but dragged by the sluggish manufacturing sector.

Manufacturing shrank further by -6.2% YoY and -4.6% QoQ SAAR (2Q 2015: -4.8% YoY;-17.3% QoQ SAAR), mainly on lower transport engineering, electronics and precision engineering output.

Services sector expanded by +3.6% YoY and +3.5% QoQ SAAR (2Q 2015: +3.6% YoY; -0.2% QoQ SAAR), supported by the rental & leasing and other administrative & support services segments.

Construction sector activities eased to +1.6% YoY and -1.6% QoQ SAAR (2Q 2015: +2.2% YoY & +13.4% QoQ SAAR), led by softer public sector construction activities. The moderate growth in the sector is evident from the -64.2% YoY decline in construction contracts awarded during the quarter (public contracts: -70.4% YoY; private contracts: -53.7% YoY).

Resilient domestic demand supported growth as net external demand weakened. Domestic demand grew further by +4.3% YoY but contracted by -0.5% QoQ SAAR (2Q 2015: +3.6% YoY; +15.5% QoQ SAAR) on sustained expansion in consumer spending (3Q 2015: +5.2% YoY & +4.8% QoQ SAAR; 2Q 2015: +3.8% YoY & +5.5% QoQ SAAR), in tandem with the higher employment registered in 3Q 2015 at 16,400 (2Q 2015: 9,700) mainly in the services sector which added 17,000 workers as manufacturing sector shed 4,300 workers during the quarter. In contrast, net external demand contracted -11.2% YoY and -59.6% QoQ SAAR decline (2Q 2015: +10.3% YoY; -54.9% QoQ SAAR) as growth in imports outpaced exports during the quarter. (Read Report)

Read Related Report
1) Singapore - Recession averted in 3Q15, but official forecasts trimmed by HSBC Global Research, published on 25 November 2015

Source : Maybank Kim Eng Research

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