The MSCI Asia Ex Japan Index (MXASJ) is currently testing its 200-day SMA.
Will this long term SMA give way soon?
Prices have fallen from the 644.14 high set in April in only 3-waves. Hence, there is no confirmation yet on whether the index is in its wave-C that could take it below the 2012 low of 415.65.
In Elliott Waves terms, we see an expanded flat pattern since the 599 high set in 2011. In the near term, a minor bounce could follow before the final wave (v) is expected to take place.
Once we have 5 waves in place and that is when we can confirm that wave-C is taking place.
A close below 542.92 would also boost the idea that the next leg down (in wave-C) is underway as a negative close would break the sequence of higher highs and higher lows since the 2012 low.
We would keen watching this index in the coming weeks for the confirmation that the long term trend has changed. (Read Report)
Source : CIMB Research