Phillip Futures Gold Daily Outlook - Gold’s rebound signals that it is unwilling to give up the $1,200 level, and may consider trending only after the FOMC minutes next week.
Shared By Stock Fanatic on Saturday, April 25, 2015 | 25.4.15
Gold Price Movements
Gold prices rebounded +0.6% yesterday as both US initial jobless claims and US Markit manufacturing PMI disappointed. Initial jobless claims last week came in at 295K, higher than the 290K expected; manufacturing PMI in April, as measured by Markit, came in at 54.2, lower than the expected 55.5. Both results added to evidence that the US Federal Reserve is not ready to raise interest rates in June, although the report on existing home sales surprised to the upside the day before.
Phillip Futures Energy Daily Outlook - More Bombs, More Geopolitical Risk; increased geopolitical tensions gave some risk premium to crude oil prices.
Shared By Stock Fanatic on Friday, April 24, 2015 | 24.4.15
Fundamental and Technical Analysis
More bombs, more geopolitical risk: Shortly after Saudi Arabia claim to have ended Operation “Decisive Storm”, more attacks begin days later. This “indecisiveness” cause another spike in crude prices just when the market thought that geopolitical risk can be eased off the market.
US natural gas inventories increased by 90B ft3, trending very near to 2013 levels: No surprise with the increase as winter consumption should already be grinding to a halt. The bigger surprise is at the reluctance of natural gas to move lower indicating that we could already be at a low. Whenever prices try to drop further down, it rebounds almost immediately. This could be caused by the fact that inventories have not crossed 2013 levels. Provided it does, newer lows could be made.
US crude oil production stays low; the market seems to be missing the point: The market looks closely at inventories as it increased again by over 5m barrels on Wednesday night. Although inventories obviously show bearishness, production has stopped increasing which is an event we have been waiting for since prices have hit its low. The market seems to be surprisingly myopic in their view and we maintain our bullish stance.
Labels: Oil and Gas sector
Can the NASDAQ Composite push to new all time highs in the coming weeks? Seriously, we don’t know.
For now, the near term upside appears to be capped as we see that the index is close to completing its bearish wedge pattern (red).
It is also facing strong resistance from the trend line drawn from the March 2014 highs.
Labels: Technical Analysis
FCOT’s 2Q/1HFY15 DPUs were in line, at 25%/50% of our full-year forecast. ATP remained the main contributor to FCOT’s healthy NPI growth of 14% yoy in 2QFY15. We continue to like FCOT, as ATP will drive DPU growth for FY15 and 34% of the portfolio leases have built-in rental step-ups. We maintain our Hold rating but tweak our FY15-17 DPU up by 0.8-3.8% and raise our DDM-based target price, as we roll over to FY16. Re-rating catalysts could come from yield-accretive acquisitions or the monetisation of its unutilised hotel GFA at CSC.
■ 1Q15 DPU missed at only 21% of our FY15F. Lower-thanexpected retail contributions the variance. Cut FY15-17 DPU by 5-7%.
■ Retail softness to weigh, near term. Also exposed to weaker office market in 2016.
■ Maintain HOLD on lack of catalysts. DDM-based TP lowered to SGD1.89 from SGD1.94. Prefer Keppel REIT in office sector.
We downgrade AREIT to HOLD but maintain target price of S$2.73 post a nearly 23% spike in share price. JTC figures released yesterday showed slight declines of 0.2% qoq and 0.9% yoy in occupancy across the industrial sector. Maintain BUY and target price of S$1.42 for ART. Income streams still look stable with a sizeable chunk accounted for by master leases. Maintain HOLD and target price of S$2.08 for Suntec REIT. Suntec retail AEI rent pick-up fell short of guidance due to a challenging retail climate. Our preferred picks are CCT, CDREIT and ART. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT.
■ AREIT, Ascott Residence and Suntec REIT reported results yesterday.
As anticipated, domestic residential prices in 1Q15 continued to decline for the sixth consecutive quarter. The URA private property price index dipped 1.0% YoY in 1Q15, versus a 1.1% decrease in 4Q14. The housing bear market was broad-based, and prices fell across the mass-market, mid-tier and high-end segments (down 0.8%, 1.3% and 0.9%, respectively).
Reiterate BUY with a higher SGD0.95 TP (from SGD0.83, 16% upside) on higher expectations of store count expansion in a benign rental rates environment. We also expect to see continual gross margins improvement, driven by cost efficiencies from its distribution centre and lower raw material costs on the depreciating MYR.
• We downgrade Del Monte Pacific Limited (DMPL) to a HOLD based on its valuation. After the strong share price performance in March, we think there is limited upside for the stock in the short term. However, we are still positive on the long-term transformation of the company and think that there is potential upside to our target price if the company successfully turns around the US business. We recommend investors to accumulate the stock if it pulls back after its 4QFY15 results. Suggested entry price: S$0.38.